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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (2538)9/18/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom   of 2754
 
This is a rather interesting week to make a comparison of
the group, and each stock in the group, with the group
performance in 1997.

In the August, September, October time frame in 1997 the
group sum had a rather broad top extending for about 8
weeks. The best weekly performance of the group, however,
was the week closing 9/19/97. This makes a 2 year
comparison period thru the closing prices of this past
Friday, 9/17. The comparison is shown below.

Even though the group performance from last October, nearly
a year ago, until now has been terrific, the group is still
"sucking wind" compared to 9/19/97. Out of the 36 stocks in
the group, only 11 have exceeded their 9/19/97 closing
price. That leaves 25 lower than the price in 1997. The
bottom 7 in the group are not even up to 50 percent of their
price in 1997, 2 years ago.

At the group level, the sum is down 16 percent from the
9/19/99 level. Note that over the same time period, the
SOX-X is up 48 percent. That this performance is reasonable
can be seen by looking at AMAT, TER, NVLS and KLAC, the 4
stocks in the group of 36 that are included in the SOX-X
index, all have positive gains over the 2 year period. Even
though the 4 stocks all have positive gains, the sum of the
4 stocks added together have a combined gain of 32 percent
which is quite a bit below the 48 percent gain of the SOX-X.

What does all this mean? - probably nothing, however,
compared to 1997 the group has a way to go to even reach
their price level in 1997, and a large majority of the
stocks therein have a long way to go to get back even to
their performance in 1997.

To finish on a more positive note, for those of you who
bought and held PHTN over the 2 year period,
congratulations!!!


09/19/97 09/17/99
CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT
SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE
PHTN Photon Dynamics 6.75 22.75 237
AMAT Applied Materials * 48.85 84.81 74
LTXX LTX 7.38 12.69 72
TER Teradyne * 26.78 40.63 52
ASML ASM Lithography Holdings 47.94 64.88 35
LRCX Lam Research 51.88 63.81 23
NVLS Novellus Systems * 56.75 67.75 19
HELX Helix Technology 31.19 34.19 10
KLAC KLA Instruments * 69.88 73.00 4
ATMI ATMI Inc 34.75 35.63 3
CYMI Cymer 35.31 35.63 1
COHU Cohu 51.13 48.00 -6
MASK Align-Rite International 21.25 19.55 -8
CMOS Credence Systems 54.13 49.50 -9
MTSN Mattson Technology 15.00 13.50 -10
PLAB Photronics 30.00 25.75 -14
NANO Nanometrics 12.56 10.00 -20
GSNX Gasonics 22.38 17.55 -22
EGLS Electroglas 30.31 23.75 -22
DPMI Dupont Photomasks 65.63 49.75 -24
ASYT Asyst Technologies 45.00 33.63 -25
IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 17.75 13.25 -25
ETEC Etec System 59.75 43.44 -27
PRIA Pri Automation 54.69 39.38 -28
BRKS Brooks Automation 38.00 22.31 -41
WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 32.38 18.00 -44
SMTL Semitool 18.63 10.13 -46
VECO Veeco Instruments 66.88 34.13 -49
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 52.75 26.81 -49
FSII FSI International 18.00 8.69 -52
UTEK Ultratech Stepper 32.13 13.63 -58
TGAL Tegal 8.75 3.38 -61
SVGI Silicon Valley Group 34.88 12.06 -65
SFAM SpeedFAM 51.63 13.44 -74
CFMT CFM Technologies 36.50 8.50 -77
ASEC Aseco 16.75 3.47 -79
TOTALS 1304.32 1097.37 -16
SOX-X Phili Semiconductor Index 382.71 565.22 48
* Component of 16 stock SOX-X Index
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