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Technology Stocks : AMD/INTC/RMBS et ALL
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To: kash johal who wrote (78)9/18/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: Charles R  Read Replies (1) of 271
 
Kash,

<Look you are making the assumption that AMD will be 1-2 speed grades ahead- I find that unlikely frankly.>

Yup, I stated that assumption and looks like we disagree. OK.

<For Q1-Q2 2000:
I can see Coppermine-128's running in $75-100 range at speeds of 500-650Mhz.
I can see Coppermine 256 in prices of $120-300 range at speeds of 667-800Mhz.

So lets not assume that Intel is REMOTELY DEAD yet.>

<So I wouldn't be too sure of Intels demise just yet.>

Firstly, I do not believe the speeds that you quote are competitive for Q1/Q2 of next year. Secondly, for some reason you have come to the conclusion that I am implying that Intel is dead. Why? I have repeatedly asserted, sometimes addressed directly to you, that Intel will be the market share leader 2 years out. Where is the confusion?

All I am stating is the ASPs are on the way down. They will effect the ultimate profit potential of both AMD and Intel. For AMD it is a new market segment so they can look at it as reduced market potential. Intel, on the otherhand, is incumbant and will bear the brunt of ASP erosion - but that can hardly be called demise.

<They could capture 80% of low end and 90% of high end next year.

AMD has a decent shot at a double or triple next year but they have NO CHANCE at capturing much more than 15% of the total market next year or around 20M pcs.

And they can only do this if they execute flawlessly.>

We are quite far apart on that one. I say let's agree to disagree and move on.

Chuck
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