if you really believe in b2b then why so conservative?
Warren Buffet learned me that it is a better idea to focus
on "limit the losses" instead of "winning as much as possible".
As long as you stay in the game "time is on your side".
Since then I trade on fundamentals, pick top3-companys,
do a risk-reward-analysis, no one-product start-ups,
no option-plays etc. And I hold until there is
a fundamental change. I'm doing much, much better since
then.
great companies but do you feel they will directly
benefit from internet enabled software (b2b)?
B2B is not about software, it is about reshaping and
resdesign our business-society worldwide. And redesigning
the overall-architecture. From decentralization (thanks to
the PC) to centralization (thanks to the net, remember,
the network is the computer). Software is just a small, but
important, piece of the cake.
Anyway just thinking out loud but since you know software
anyway why not take a large stake..
I was in MANU, remember. Sold 2 days before the IBM-takeover
was canceled (thanks to your background-info). It is just one
of the examples why it is better to pick top-3 companies.
Compaq is hammered last year, but they have a deep pocket
and will turn-around sooner or later. If it was not a top-3
company it would probably have been bankrupt.
CAWS was my first stock I bought on the Nasdaq. I lost
75% in 3 months, they are now gone. Lots of money, but it
was worth it. Learned a lot from that mistake. And had
the luck to step in Dell from the remaining money (no
kidding).
Bottomline; the Goldman&Sachs-report actually tells
Wallstreet that Internet is not a niche anymore, it is
mainstream for the next decade. That is why I'm quiet sure
that there will a lot of easy money to earn in the "oldies"
with the right strategy.
I said it before, very soon Wallstreet will judge every
comapny by it's e-business strategy. Both the dot.coms
but also so the oldies (in or outside the techworld).
Both the companies that have a (good) strategy, and those
who don't. Last category will look for new bottoms (and
stay there for a while. If they survive anyhow.)
My top10 is not an ego-thing. But hope to get some responses
to sharpen the list. ASPN, Qulacomm is at least are on my
radar-screen but have to know more to "understand" it. I'm not
a network-specialist (but have friends who are).
In the sofware-sector it's 1. Oracle 2. Sap (large worldwide
customer-base, solid, good services and invested big in inter-
nettechnologie last 2 years) 3.??
Siebel is a stock I wish I had bought 1/2 year ago when
someone tipped it. But I didn't. At this moment it is too
high for me, to much a "one-product"-company (not bashing
it but as far as I know the stock I only relate it to CRM).
But is sure not is a bad stock or company.
One thing I know for sure; Oracle will stay #1 on
my list for a very, very long time.
With regards,
Paul
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