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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Process Boy who wrote (72408)9/20/1999 12:26:00 AM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (3) of 1572957
 
Re: I in no way concede Intel's leadership...

The real issue may not lie in CPU technology leadership. The 800MHZ part has already been demoed. It can't be considered too big a secret anymore, can it? 133.33 x 6 is such a nice even number...

But 800 looks to be coming from AMD in the same time frame. I think a MHZ tie after Intel has done its best would be pretty good news for AMD, since given their limited resources it was expected by no one - and will let AMD make some money in Q4. Under normal circumstances a tie wouldn't be enough to let AMD quickly break into the high end market.

But the key is that AMD doesn't need to wrestle with the Rambus issue. How will it be handled? If rambus isn't pushed upon its release, it will look very bad, and may keep it permanently out of the running as a replacement memory technology - blowing a strategy years in the planning that cost Intel Billions. If rambus is pushed, then no one will want to buy Coppermine without it, and Intel is limited to AMD Athlon Q3 level volume while AMD is allowed to establish itself solidly as a high end alternative.

With the possibility that AMD could start shipping from Dresden as early as Q1 of 00, Q4 of 99 is not a good time for Intel to let AMD become established in the high end. It's not good from Intel's perspective to allow Dresden to hit the ground running, with a ready market prepared to accept its output.

It seems like a classic management school exercise - what should Intel do?

Dan
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