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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 672.07-1.7%4:00 PM EST
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (26356)9/20/1999 12:58:00 PM
From: TimbaBear  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
hb....when I say that the PPI/CPI formula is a constant, I don't mean that it can't be adjusted when the weighting of items indicate that it is not accurately measuring what they want to measure....but once those formula changes have been made, then the formula becomes a constant for as long as it works for them....therefore, I view it as a constant....if I remember correctly, they tried to get the formula changed for a number of years before they finally were able to get enough support, so this isn't something that can be changed at whim as some might interpret your remarks to mean.

You said..."...it is worrisome to note that both private bankruptcies and junk bond defaults have been rising sharply this year..."

I live in Florida which is considered to be the bankruptcy capital of North America and the storyline here this year is that bankruptcies have decreased....not by a tremendous amount....but have, nonetheless, stopped rising.

I don't know about junk bond defaults but I would question whether it is the number or the percentage that you see is increasing and where I might find the numbers?....I can see the numbers increasing because there has been increasing activity and therefore more in the pool that could go into default, but I haven't seen any numbers to indicate a percentage increase.

I am unclear as to which you see as the more immediate threat to the US markets and/or the US economy....inflation or deflation?
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