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Strategies & Market Trends : Investor sentiment surveys - a technical indicator
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To: Q. who wrote (15)4/5/1997 1:20:00 AM
From: Sam Citron   of 167
 
John,

Rather than relying on your 12 week rule, which is rather arbitrary, I have noticed that once the % bullish declines to roughly half of its previous peak, the market has tended to resume its bullish course. Over the last 5 weeks the % bullish has declined from 63 to 27 suggesting that this correction may be in its final stage, if not already complete.

I believe that my analysis is more internally consistent with the logic of your hypothesis since it is entirely sentiment driven rather than based, in part, on a fixed time component.

BTW, do you know how long Barrons has data for its sentiment study, since the 10 year time span of the AAII study is a bit limited, given the longevity of this bull market?

SC
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