>We will never see a world with only one single super and pure computer language.
Actually, we might. And who knows, maybe Java will be that language. Or at least, maybe Java will finally break through the platform dependent barrier, and move the computing world forward to a point where a new and more complete language could emerge that would truly make all others obsolete. I will never discount the possibilities of creative engineers (I am, after all, one of them).
In the mean time we have a very diverse field of programming languages and platforms. Delphi has demonstrated that even niche dev markets can be lucrative. C++ Builder also fills a niche (a much wider niche IMO), and has potential to steal VB market. Java clearly has momentum. In my company, we are already looking at ways that Java will enhance our products (although the core technolgy has performance requirements far beyond capabilites of JAVA and Java VM). Java will clearly have a place in our newest technolgy. And most app shops are likely evaluating Java currently. But remember, if Java was THE LANGUAGE then any company selling Java technolgoy would be making a killing. MS can not give away J++. Symantec is not posting record revenues on their Java product. Everybody may be talking JAva, but, for now, the big money is still in the more mature languages.
My biggest departure from Rod is that I look at the momentum and industry projections, and I just don't see Java as THE LANGUAGE. I have a market study that shows the largest SW growth sector over next 2 years will be Client Server apps. Internet places second with stand-alone apps declining drastically (adios MFC). THis Bodes well for RAD CS tools such as Delphi and C++ Builder, and (excuse me while I choke) Visual Basic. If the Java momentum plays out, then I can see Java two years from now emermging as one of the dominant languages (Java VM should be reasonably mature by then). Not to mention the hype will have died down, as the press will busy over-hyping the next technology play (perhaps Windows 98 <grin>). Most of us will already be using Java to some extent, and it will stand or fall on its own merits.
While we are all argluing about languages, remember that there is a push to make app dev by the end user language free. Check out Show-N-Tell by BrookTrout. You can develop complex telephony apps without writing one stinkin' line of code (all icons and flow charts). So more and more, we may see that except for the under-the-hood programmers, all programming languages will be irrelevant (and perhaps a lot of programmers as well). |
