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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (72495)9/20/1999 2:41:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1572384
 
Ted,

Re:"Raza and Dresden"

Well Dresden is sure a real peculiar situation.

It is not clear to me who made the Copper descision for AMD/Dresden. Clearly if the fab was Al it would be shipping high volumes by now.

In addition a lot of pro-AMD folks think the problem is simply build the parts and they will come.

Frankly lots of people will never buy an AMD chip.

So I don't believe that AMD can utilize Fab 25 and Fab 30 fully.

I simply don't think they can sell enuff CPU's.

Now the good news is that Flash demand is so high that they can turn Fab 25 to flash as Dresden ramps.

Also there is press that Mot is interested in getting some of dredens fab capacity.

So although I AM VERY BULLISH on AMD, I can still see a whole lot of problems.

And frankly the conservative thing to do would have been to duplicate Fab 25's latest tool sets in the first 50% of the fab.

I suspect we might have been looking at over 1M K7's in Q3 in such a scenario.

Raza struck me as a very well balanced risk-averse manager type. He may even have talked to customers/oems/sales folks and reached a conclusion on how many chips they could sell at a profit.

I see Jerry as a brilliant but ego-driven maniac who is willing to gamble everything to win the big score - and i honestly believe the guy doesn't give a crap about his shareholders.

Well its half-time and the K7 is a great design. In the second half we will see if they can deliver from dresden.

If they can the hail mary may be very successfull and more power to Jerry.

Regards,

Kash
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