CCBL has been an interesting company to watch.
They got a boost from the announcement of mini-node delivery to Salt Lake. However, it is always important in situations like this to look beyond the hype of the press releases to what is going on in the real world.
First of all, investors must realize that although it says AT&T Broadband and Internet Services on the outside, it is still the old TCI on the inside and architecture changes as is being trialed in Salt Lake do not come easy or quick. C-Cor has a reputation in the industry as providing reasonably good equipment, not great, at competitive pricing. There is a substantial amount of technology risk with this new node, around which the revised architecture is based. I would bet there is going to be a pretty long list of deficiencies and revisions needed before approval into the network on a large scale. There always is -- even components as mundane as splitters and taps go through many iterations for a new product before acceptance, and fiber nodes are magnitudes more complicated than these passive devices.
So the excitement level for now should be limited to the fact that CCBL got the go-ahead for the trial. DO NOT expect a large contract or announcement of massive shipments of mini-nodes any time soon.
As for the Silicon Valley Communications operation, it is scarcely known in the industry. So if the mini-node technology comes from them, it will be noticeably suspect. If they have major known cable industry technologists, it is not known in general. That is always a danger sign in broadband. If they are doing technology transfer from another industry, say from wireless telecom, that is another red flag. But time will tell. As of now, they are just an unknown quantity so it is very difficult to tell how their technology will perform.
Especially in the real world. RF is anything but a precise science and many products I've seen that work great in the lab (even with simulated known interference) totally bomb out when installed in a real network. This is not to throw cold water on what they have produced, just an observation of product introductions in cable over many years.
Hope that helps. I've heard not too many people are pleased with the GIC/Motorola plan so you're not alone. |
