Dennis, CIMA,
Interesting articles from your posts, and thought provoking.
Seems to me like I can maybe summarize the new world order (in very simplified and imperfect terms, of course) as follows:
1. Capital controls and possibly national infrastructure projects are chic again, i.e. one size does not fit all - what a refreshing change! Unfettered free market is passe?
2. Political stability is important to the world economic well-being (I would have never guessed!). Unfortunately, this most likely means a greater tolerance (hasn't it always been so?) towards autocratic regimes, provided they don't engaged in genocide (a la East Timor, Rwanda or Kosovo), provided they are value-add to the new world economic order. I can name any number of regimes who have been past masters at this over time immemorial. In other words, it is OK to terrorize some of your people some of the time, provided it does not get too overt, or too widespread, without invoking international ire.
In the article posted by CIMA, Indonesia was quoted as an example where the World Bank/IMF measures did not work. I think a closer-to-the truth analysis would be that if the World Bank/IMF money were in fact used for what they were intended to, things might have worked out. Of course the World Bank/IMF are finding out to their surprise that much of the aid money disappeared in various sophisticated and not-so-sophisticated money laundering schemes (did somebody say Russia?). Should we ascribe this to WB/IMF naivety, or to Indonesian naivety?
So we go round the circle once more. I just hope it is actual a spiraling circular - upwards, that is.
Best to all,
Steve |
