. . . . Online Brokerages are strange animals. . . . . .
Again, those annual gross revenue figures are an extrapolation based on the last report. If the most recent report showed revs for trailing 6 months. . .that amount was doubled to arrive at an extrapolated revenue figure. If the most recent report was for 3 months, the figure was multiplied by 4 . . so these are estimates, to be sure. But since most of these companies were not in business for a year or more, I believe this extrapolated gross revenue figure to be more useful in calculating the estimated annual sales volume . . .in a VERY rough sort of way.
There are certainly more accurate ways to compare these companies and there are analyst earnings estimates that are helpful. But I don't always use the same figures as are most popular, when evaluating companies.
It is interesting to see where all these stocks are selling. . .and how their size and sales has little to do with their current price. . . I believe that short positions have more to do with where these are trading.
Remember, this is not a science. . .and it is not much of an art. . .we are basically trying to predict which stocks are going to bid up at a faster rate and higher percentage than others. . .and to do that, we must consider short interest, manipulation and float as much as data that goes into making a "true" valuation.
A few thoughts. . .
DIR. . .I don't like the company. . .but I like the stock here. . . This could be one of the leaders soon. . .and is a recent IPO that could turn and run.
TWE. . .this is an enormous online brokerage that is totally ignored. . . it is nearly twice the size of EGRP and over 3 times the size of AMTD, yet sells for a considerable discount to both. . . also float is smaller on TWE than either EGRP or AMTD.
NITE is getting all the buzz these days . . . and I believe that translates into fund manager attention. . .as it appears to be a leader.
NDB was called to $100 by an analyst several months ago. . . I think now, that is overinflated and terribly optimistic.
JBOH just upgraded their whole site and getting some momentum. . .7m float. . this one likes to run to $20, when brokerage hype hits [which happens periodically. . .by design?]
NATS is the biggest sleeper of all. . .higher revenues than SIEB, and 2/3rds the tiny float size at just 600k. . . this is a profitable company that is expected to announce their online brokerage any day now. . .they have been a traditional brokerage in Chicago, but once they go online, I would expect some attention. . .with this tiny float, the least bit of attention and this one could be selling for the same as SIEB.
MHMY is out of order on the list. . .should be higher. . . .and ABWG sure doesn't have much in the way of revs coming in, comparatively.
As I stated earlier, with major brokerages releasing earnings tomorrow, we could see a pop in online brokerages.
Rande Is |
