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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Les H who wrote (26348)9/20/1999 6:18:00 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE.

The market produced a minus 1300 downtick reading on Thursday that coincided with a bullish "Hammer" candlestick pattern that triggered a bullish short term signal. The "5 day ARMS" at the time was not near a bullish reading (it closed at 4.83 on Thursday). Therefore we elected not to take the buy signal. We concluded the better trade would be to wait for the bounce and look for the next sell signal as the bigger trend is down tell October or November. Most surprise moves will follow the trend. The "5 day ARMS" closed today at 4.56. Readings near "4.00" and below appear near short term tops. Today's reading implies the market has not a lot of room for rallying. Today's intraday pattern looks more like a consolidation pattern and with the light volume implies this bounce could carry a bit further. There were no high uptick readings today to signal a top is near by. The McClellan Oscillator closed today at minus 65. This reading implies the bigger trend is down. The December S&P's may make an attempt to test the September 7 high near the 1380 area before the next top is in. Our first significant downside target is the 1140 area on the December S&P's. For now we are staying short-the mutual fund position.
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