MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 672.04

-1.7%

Nov 13 4:00 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (26413)	9/20/1999 6:37:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 99985

re: solvency vs. liquidity crisis: I think you're taking the US-Japan analogy too far. They have a deep-rooted cultural inability to admit they made a mistake. Therefore, they still have on the books a mountain of debt that has been uncollectible since 1990. You're right, it's a solvency (not liquidity) problem. But the level of debt in the US is nowhere near as high as in Japan in 1989 or Korea in 1998. Yes, there are lots of industries, companies, and individuals, who are too highly leveraged. And there are lots that aren't. One of my iron-clad investing rules is: only buy stock in companies that are growing the business out of cash flow, not new debt or equity. In the US, we don't weaken the whole system by forcing the strong to lend to the weak. We shut down S&Ls wholesale. It sounds like you are expecting a bear market to start before the end of 1999, and last for at least a year. And it sounds like you're expecting worse than the 20% correction I'm expecting. Do you have a target for the bottom?

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next