Good Evening Tomas,
Here is my posting from Strictly: Drilling and oil field services, as requested:
Now for my two cents.
1. Old iron is old iron. We have already seen about 80% of the upgrade work possible with old rig designs, this was done during the last boom, mostly to accommodate the shifting drilling technology. Such things as the addition of top drives, extra mud pumps, sponsons, etc. were integrated into these older rigs without much fuss.
You cannot squeeze blood from a stone, guys, and old iron cannot be made to work in deep water. Deep water is the future of big budget exploration programs, like it or not. Older semis and drillships do not have the displacement to handle high variable deck loads necessary for deep water mooring and long drilling risers. Older semis and drillships do not have the generating capacity to convert to dynamic positioning, nor do they have the room to add it. Older semis and drillships are not easily converted to high pressure - high temperature rigs. This is why we have had an enormous surge in new build activity.
Land rigs, on the other hand, are only hampered by derrick load capacity and design depth rating. A 20,000' rig can drill a 20,000' well, whether it's in 1950 or 1999. And a land rig can easily accommodate extra mud pumps, additional power generation, etc.
2. There has been a robust interest in deepwater blocks worldwide, though not at the frenetic pace of 1996-97. It is not advisable to use a boom year as a yardstick to measure profitable activity. The last licensing round in Brazil, for example, for deepwater blocks attracted widespread industry attention and competitive bidding. Same for Nigeria. The Falkland islands will be busy again, and soon, make no mistake. The soft-pedalling of the discoveries last year was purely strategic. The presence of hydrocarbons in any amount is hugely significant for such rank wildcats.
3. FGI will almost certainly have a slow year with respect to new build orders, but just as certainly, will be busy with work on recommissioning supply vessels, shallow and medium depth-rated jackups and floaters, and barge rigs. The commodity prices dictate profitability in mature petroleum provinces, and there are hundreds of shallow-medium water prospects in the GOM which are being freshly reviewed.
I myself do not have a position in FGI at this point, short or otherwise. All of this whining about people expressing their opinions...let's give it a rest, eh? In the final analysis, if you think they're shorting, adjust your perspective and strategy accordingly and take your losses and gains like an adult.
'Nuff said. Last week I had the pleasure of touring the Stena Tay, a completely new concept in Semisubmersible drilling. Very interesting rig conversion (used to be a "flotel"), the power package generates 45 MW (WOW! Small city consumption)and burns about 65 tons of diesel daily to do it. The rig is a HydraLift ram rig, the derrick is not load bearing - only a stiffened structure. The hookload is handled by vertical hydraulic rams. Drilling assemblies and casing strings are made up to the side and out of critical path.
Well...Shell has taken a huge gamble with this rig (5 year contract), I wish them luck with all the kinks.
Regards to all,
Aggie
|
