Big Bull; re: FGI - we differ in opinion; but, what has the tape said ?
... and what is it saying again this morning ????
I understand what you are saying; there are many ways to interpret the rather unusual circumstances with FGI. We simply have differing opinions of "why" some of these things are occuring, or maybe even "what" has occured in some cases.
However Bull; even you have to admit; the market sure hasn't been confused, those shorts that have never wavered in nearly a year, have not been confused. The only confusion has unfortunately been on behalf of the "longs" on this thread. - sorry; but that is an undeniable fact.
Bottomline; -( and isn't that all that "REALLY" matters ?)
The ticker tape on FGI is the only judge & jury that matters - and what have they ruled on FGI of late ?
You and I can argue to infinity; but who has the tape agreed with ?
Given the tape and the markets reaction to FGI - shouldn't this thread at the very least be open to the opinion & reason why those who have put FGI where its at pricewise, did so ?
- or, as this entire exchange has clearly demonstrated; is this revered thread just simply another cheerleading thread ? - only open to good news, only willing to hear what we want to hear ?
MeThinks the answer is obvious... and sadly so.
You can continue to rationalize, to explain, to dismiss, to ignore all you want; bottomline - the market has expressed their opinion and their interpretation on FGI - and it is not a pretty picture ? the FGI fans on this thread are not right in their interpretation of these issues on FGI - if "you" were - FGI would simply not be $10 here, now would it ?
... so who is "really" right in their interpretation ? And again; I point to the "tape" as the only judge & jury that matters.
IPO $12
All Time High $48
52 week High $20 1/8
52 week Low $ 9 7/8
current price $10 3/4.... while the OSX is near its highs (untill yesterday...)
Bull in all due respect; my point is NOT to continue an arguement that can not be settled via 'tit for tat' posting exchanges - and we on SI can not settle that arguement. 95% of all message boards are "long" vs. "short" on any stock mentioned. Any negatives and especially ANY short arguement on ANY stock, on ANY thread will ALLWAYS be met with flames.
What amazes me; is that no one EVER did any type of fundamental valuation comparison of FGI to its peers and then questioned the valuation of FGI. No one ever expressed any doubts of the valuation in relation to its declining backlog, the sentiment & all the litigation & cancellation attempts on Offshore Construction Projects, the sentiment toward the debt necessary to fund these projects in this environment, the massive decline in Cap Ex Spending by Big Oil- especially in the Offshore Rig Construction sector ... on & on...
FGI has been the posterchild of this thread; for what has embarrasingly been a very unsophisticated level of analysis, or the acceptance of the clear reality of the markets totally opposite sentiment towards this company.
Imho; never has this thread been so wrong on one company; and the tape - clearly demonstrates that truth. You all can pretend that what has happened - hasn't; and you can continue rationalizing, dismissing, explaining, ignoring and pretending - but all you really need to do; is look at FGI's price - period.
... and no one; who has held FGI is above water; unless they bought before Feb 26th.... sad, very sad. All I tried to do; was express my opinion that FGI is a good "trading" vehicle - as that prior sentence clearly documents; and express my thoughts on why FGI has been in literal freefall from $18 to $10 here; and especially the $13 to $10 decline in the prior 5 trading days alone... and "I'm" the bad guy ?
I've been totally open about my position; and I have explained why I am. Perhaps someone needs to explain to all those FGI fans who bought on all the cheerleading at $15, at $16 and at $18 - especially those who bought on margin and got destroyed here - why we find ourselves at $10 here...?
Clearly; no one liked my explanation... maybe you all just stay in denial long enough; and someday, just someday (not that it might be at the "end" of the recovery cycle - say 2001 perhaps) Big Oil unleashes those Cap Ex $ in the Offshore Lease Sales (gee what an indicator for FGI's future) and they have a reason to need to build more Offshore Rigs again ? .... (not that FLC's coldstacked fleet is a clear indicator of the nearterm prospects either...)...
Wake Up Folks.... denial is not a river in Egypt.
What amazes me; is that there were sooooooooo many clues in advance:
Big Oil Cap Ex cuts - emphasizing declining spending offshroe
Big Oil's - total absence from the Offshore Lease sale
All the cancellations, delay attempts, arbitration & litigation on Offshore Rig projects
The negative sentiment towards the high debt necessary to fund these projects
Declining dayrates for Offshore Rigs
Declining shareprices for Offshore Drillers
Cold stacked "fleets" of Offshore Rigs
Declining backlogs
Absence of new Offshore Orders
Huge short interest in the stock itself - that hasn't wavered
Insider sales, transfers, disposals etc - but, most importantly - NO substantial INSIDER BUYS - OR A COMPANY BUY BACK - when its stock is below the initial IPO price and one of the biggest laggards in the Oilpatch
... and the only thing that really matters: the shareprice
Sorry guys; but I am not interested in trying to win a popularity contest - the only one that I hope agrees with me is the "tape" - period. |
