re: "If you had used this logic any year for the past decade on companies like MSFT, DELL, CSCO, and had gone short, you would have had your head handed to you."
Valuations have never been as stretched as they are now for the big cap tech companies in the Nasdaq 100, not in the last 10 years, never. AMAT has never traded at its current P/S ratio. Never. And I've never bought index puts, ever, until a week ago. Did you see the chart I posted on the Nasdaq's PE ?
I agrea that these companies are excellent longterm holdings. My current portfolio is:
AMAT (still holding my last 100 contracts of ZPJAH, bought at 3.89)
INTC (still holding a few contracts of ZNLAT, bought at 5.77)
SAP (bought 3/99, my largest position, up from 24 to 35 so far)
And, in the last month, I've bought some Watson Pharmaceuticals, Monsanto, and Clayton Homes, because they were undervalued.
I bought oil drillers/services when oil was 10$, and sold when it hit 20$, not currently holding any.
Nasdaq 100 puts (5% of my portfolio now, will increase to 10% by the end of upcoming earnings season)
So, net, I'm still long the market. But that may change.
You have a point about real interest rates. But if you think the Fed might be convinced to loosen, you haven't been listening to them. I read the text of every published speech of Greenspan I can find. The original, not the commentaries. He's worried about an asset bubble, and rising wage costs. |
