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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 679.68

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (26591)	9/21/1999 9:25:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Re Nasdaq P/E: It seems P/E has been growing faster than the index itself, which means average earnings have been shrinking for the past few years. P/E has increased more than 5 times in the past 5 years, which means if we went back to previous P/E levels the Nasdaq would drop over 80%. Impossible? Hi-tech was hot stuff 5 years ago too, so what's changed to justify 5 times the P/E? It kills me when people say the market is 20-40% overvalued. Try a few hundred percent. The only thing keeping it up is momentum. That's why I don't believe in a rounded top, a grinding correction, or a soft landing. This can only end in a crash. True, a crash is a rare, almost once in a lifetime event. But so are P/E values this high. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a pessimist. Volatility is great! To make money fast we need large price movements, up or down - it doesn't matter, as long as we see it coming - that's what we need this thread for. Sorry to keep saying the same thing day after day. But when I hear statements like "nobody's calling for a crash" it gets me going. <g> Fun-da-Mental

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