Sudan: Pipeline Explosion May Signal Opposition's Impatience - Stratfor Commentary, September 22
The rebel attack on the newly inaugurated Sudanese oil pipeline on Sept. 19 may be an indication that the Umma party - a group of Northern politicians ousted by the current government - is becoming impatient with the course and pace of the current Libyan/Egyptian-sponsored negotiations.
The rebels know that the Sudanese government is concerned about the future of its infant oil business and has pursued intensive peace efforts over the last several months to protect it. By striking the vulnerable oil pipeline the rebels are sending a clear signal to the government to make concessions now or face continuing attacks.
The attack was carried out near the town of Atbara, north of Khartoum, and was clearly the work of the Umma Liberation Army (ULA). The government claims that it found an ULA insignia at the sabotage site and ULA Gen. Abdel-Rahman Saeed said, "Our forces were ordered to carry out a special operation." While not claiming direct responsibility, Ahmed Hassan, the spokesman of the Umma party, the political wing of the ULA, told Agence France-Presse, "exports of oil are vulnerable and can be protected only by a political agreement among all parties."
Curiously, Sadiq al-Mahdi, who is head of the Umma party as well as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which includes all anti-government forces, denied that his party was involved. Al-Mahdi's denial may be tied to his political role since he has been the chief representative of the NDA at ongoing peace efforts mediated by Libya. In order to preserve his legitimacy as a negotiator, Al-Mahdi must deny that Umma's political wing was involved in the attack.
The attack is a clear signal that Umma wants to dictate the terms of any eventual settlement. While the sabotage apparently only caused a two-day disruption in the oil flow, it is clear from the Umma statement that more attacks will follow if its terms aren't met at the negotiating table.
stratfor.com |
