Teresa,
What a good post, as normal.
>>>>> The easiest piece of economic data to predict this year was yesterday morning's Trade Balance number, which was yet another record trade deficit. For months on end, it has made new record highs and yesterday's number was no surprise........ intermarket instability where the intricately laced forces were beginning to give, with the U.S Dollar having made a top on the weekly chart, putting upward pressure on interest rates and commodity prices. <<<<
I mentioned yesterday that since I use to be in the trading industry, my sources are giving me the strong impression that even the next TRADE REPORT should be very high.
On the IMPORT side, the importers are having a hard time finding space. On the EXPORT side, it is improving but very slightly in terms of dollars. Exports are mainly increasing in basic materials like wastepaper/cheap chemicals/paper products/hides. So that is not really helping much in terms of dollars. The value(dollar figure) of the exports are very low. Total value of a 40' container of wastepaper is only $500-1500, and for comparison purpose the F.O.B value of an import container of electronics is commonly $500,000+. There is some improvement in some expensive exports like machinery, but very very slight.
Also we are at the height of the XMAS shipping seasons, and that normally does not come to an end until DEC. SEPT/OCT/NOV are normally the strong months with NOV starting to slow down. Basicly the rush is to have all or most of the product in before Thanksgiving. And from what I am hearing the IMPORTs are so strong that some importers are begging and even paying for lunch/extras now to get space on the vessels. ggggggggggg So that wont help the trade deficit and the U.S.DOLLAR in the future.
seeya |
