Barbara:
One of the main catalysts for yesterdays reversal in gold, some of the producers bid for the BOE gold. How far the rally will go? The two main factors, when and if the producers begin to sell forward and at what price, and secondly a much larger factor, what is going to happen in Asia. If you remember one of my posts several months ago, I spoke about the reversal in fortunes in Asia and its impact on the dollar, interest rates, and gold. The reversal has begun, the dollar is declining, rates are rising, and the Japanese are resisting pressure from the US to micromanage their markets. The larger question, there remains a good deal of hostility to the US resulting from the way Rubin handled the currency crisis last year. As the Japanese and other Asians begin to repatriate their wealth in a declining dollar environment, where is it going to go. I said several months ago, one of the alternatives would be the gold market. How large of an investment they make will determine how far the price of gold goes. They will be monitoring as will everyone else the actions of the third world producers, Australia, and other gold producers who will come under intense pressure from the bullion banks, cbs, and ministers to sell forward. Should the producers cut the rally short, Asia will remain in cash/cash alternatives. They will not invest in gold if they believe that the arms of the western bankers control the gold market.
Ken |
