Solar Y2K bug may cause trouble
By JAMES McWILLIAMS
Times Technology Writer
09/21/99
A Year 2000 bug on the sun could threaten satellite communications, electric-power systems, and some planes.
Roughly every 11 years, the sun goes through an intense period of spitting magnetic clouds and radioactive particles toward the Earth. One such period is due to arrive late this year and build into the middle of 2000, according to scientists.
Thus, even if the Year 2000 (Y2K) computer bug should prove to be a minor problem for U.S. industry and consumers in January, the solar Y2K bug could cause difficulties months later.
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The solar activity could also confuse affected businesses and consumers about whether their electronic problems are due to the Y2K computer bug or the sun, said Professor S.T. Wu of the Center for Space Plasma and Aeronomic Research at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.
'A solar flare is equivalent to a million one-megaton atomic bombs going off simultaneously, said David Hathaway, leader of the solar-physics group at the Marshall Space Flight Center. 'Billions of tons of material are blasted off the sun.
'The (magnetic) clouds travel in the solar wind at a million miles an hour, said Hathaway. 'They can hit Earth and shake its magnetic field, sending current through all our wires.
That current can trip a utilities circuit breakers, temporarily shutting off power, or - on a few occasions - has actually burned out utility transformers.
The last time solar activity peaked, in 1989, it temporarily shut down power to 6 million people in Quebec, Hathaway said. Some residents were without power for a week.
Some Americans in the Northeast were without power for eight hours, said Wu. Total damage from solar activity that year was more than $1 billion in North America, Wu said.
The Space Environmental Center in Boulder, Colo., a 'space weather forecasting service, gives utilities advance warning when solar events may endanger them, said Wu.
Visible light takes about eight minutes to travel 90 million miles from the sun to the Earth. Some radioactive particles from the sun take a half hour to reach Earth, said Hathaway.
But the magnetic clouds that utilities worry about often need at least 60 hours and sometimes 90 hours to reach Earth, said Wu. Utilities can take precautions during that time to prevent damage to their electric systems.
Solar flares are a greater danger to large power-distribution loops, stretched over major geographic regions, than to smaller loops distributing power to confined areas. The danger to large loops is that they are more likely to overlap magnetic fields, said Hathaway.
If a large utility knows its about to be hit with solar problems, it can distribute power on a county-by-county basis, rather than on a statewide basis, said Hathaway.
Radioactive particles from major solar events can pummel satellites, gradually destroying their solar-energy panels, said Hathaway.
Magnetic gas also can send high voltages through the satellites computer chips and short them out, said Wu. However, he said that satellites are shielded to protect them from at least some of the gas damage.
Satellite owners can command their satellites to shift positions in a way that might minimize damage, but the satellites often remain at the suns mercy, Hathaway said.
When satellites black out, they can disrupt certain TV broadcasts, cellular-phone signals, pager networks, and other communications.
Radiation from the particles can endanger pilots of planes flying at very high altitudes, so the Concorde, which flies in the thin air of the stratosphere to avoid wind drag, is equipped with radiation alarms, said Hathaway. Whenever solar particles set off those alarms, the detectors tell pilots to drop to a lower, safe altitude.
Passengers generally are exposed to no more radiation than they would get from a chest X-ray, but pregnant women and pilots who fly constantly may have concerns about repeated exposure to radiation, said Hathaway. Solar flares also can cause communications failures aboard planes, Wu said.
In the early 1980s, solar flares disrupted communications aboard Air Force One for 20 minutes, during an international trip by President Reagan, Wu said.
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