Douglas,Pretty sharp poster on the CHK message board,,gassman2 makes a good case for even lower NG prices.
messages.yahoo.com
"Hey Speedy,
by: gassman_2
6164 of 6174
October settled at 2.427, not good. On access it was trading 2.425 when I left the office. 2.43 was an
important number below that I see 2.35. Will it get there? I don't know for sure, however, the cash to future
spreads look horrible. Cash is trading a good 16 cents below futures, not good. I personally think we will
test 2.35. The big reason is the Aga. I forecast 85. Last year was 52. A build of 33, that would put us 76
behind last year. What does it all mean? Las year we injected 3.094 tcf in storage. Currently, we are at
2.67. Here's a rundown of last year Aga's: 52, 41, 41, 41, 58, 36, 48. For the rest of this year I'm looking
at 85, 85, 80, ?. So the next three weeks should see a build of 106, that would put us 3 behind last year
with 4 injections to go, not good. Last year was a record injection year, this year could surpass it. Bottom
line, I don't see a good reason not to test 2.35. "
...
"More info
by: gassman_2
6165 of 6174
Last year the October contract was trading 2.187. At expry, it was trading 2.031. I don't think
we will see that level. The main reason is that the backs are so strong. The summer doesn't to give
it up. That's why we're still in a bull market. I know my last post was kind of bearish (short term).
As long as the winter and summer are strong, I really don't care about October. I'm still holding
Chk, because I believe the bull market continues. Look at all the summer gas fired generation
comming up. It's unbelievable. Speedy, I hope this helps you out, Owl if I missed something let me
know." |
