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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 660.19

-0.8%

Nov 18 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (26731)	9/22/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: Rick Hay	Read Replies (2) of 99985

Bobby, I don't know how interested people are in oil. It's the industry I come from and I see how it affects others. Sometimes I think the whole world revolves around me then I get a wake up call... Just a note, ran into this today: <<September 22, 1999. EIA data released today shows the U.S refining system in a holding pattern. Crude oil inventories held steady at about 309 million barrels. Watch the spot price of Saudi Arabian Light. It tends to lead the way for futures.>> oil-gasoline.com Seems the refineries are playing chicken with the OPEC Countries to see who blinks first. Should be an interesting week. Definately we should watch moves on the Saudi prices as they are the biggest of the OPEC producers. This could also be a sign that the economy is slowing by less consumption due to higher prices. This is a significant shift from dwindling reserves we have experienced steadily since April 99. We havn't seen prices like this since Jan. 97. Also I must appologize, OPEC did meet today to discuss price cuts in Vienna. But as usual it was more about who gets to be the big Kahuna than about the economic impact their decisions will have on the way of life for billions of people. Scary bunch of cats, these guys. It was easy to forget about them when we had a $12 barrel. <<" In one of the tougher statements heard on the subject, Qatar's oil minister, Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, said Tuesday that OPEC should stick to its current level of production until March 2000 ``whatever the consequences.' His colleagues have made similar statements in the days leading up to today's meeting.">> <<"``What they should be discussing is expanding production because the market is overheating and has been for some time,' said Leo Drollas, chief economist at the Center for Global Energy Studies in London.">> biz.yahoo.com BTW: Iraq also has serious Y2K woes to resolve still and they are in a bad position to fix it due to the trade embargo currently in effect. No new "Big Blues" for those boys. Iraq produces 2 MM BPD and Venezuela is 2 MM BPD. For comparison Canada gets out only about 1 MM BPD and the bulk of the new drilling going on in Canada has been primarily going after natural gas instead of oil. hmmm... Rick Later

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