Larry I concur, I have two major target areas now, 9400 and 7800 on the Dow. Pretty scarry in the first case and a long term affair, a full year ahead of "schedfule if the second develop. Right now, I still do not see anything more serious that the mid 9000 as target and a powerful year end rally going well into election year. I still have a major bear in 2001 (first presidential year always a tough one and with the market as overvalued as it is, who knows.
The only reason I am still bullish for 2000 (after a major correction which I believe we are only half way through) is massive excess of liquidity in the system.
How will that new development impact the scenario? I do not think it will much. I think that the brunt of the decline will be in the DOT, financials, transportation, utilities and other such (like major cyclicals, but not oil), while the SOX should hold in the 460 to 500 area, but who knows. If MU closes under $72.5, the scenario will have to be shelved for a good 4 to 6 months, IMHO.
Zeev |
