October 5 or 6
"In prior observations, we have also commented on the research of Chris Carolan regarding market panics and crashes. His research was completely independent from that of Puetz, and based on the Carolan research one cannot yet rule out the possibility of a crash this year. His research paper entitled, Autumn Panics: A Calendar Phenomenon, won Chris the Charles H. Dow Award from the Market Technicians Association in 1998. Carolan maintained that the three market crashes of this century (U.S. 1929 and 1987, Hong Kong 1997) culminated in panic days on ?lunar days? 27 and 28. The lunar calendar labels the date of the 1st new moon following the spring equinox as month one, day one, or 1-1 with the following day being 1-2. The date of the 2nd new moon after the spring equinox is 2-1, etc. Based on the three stock crashes of this century and the crashes of 1857 and 1873 before that, he concluded that ?panics seem to wait for a particular time period on the calendar, the 27th and 28th days of the [6th or 7th] lunar months ...? In 1999, those dates would be October 5 and 6 and November 4 and 5. Do not jump to the conclusion that Carolan or his theory are predicting crashes on those dates this year. In fact, Carolan is on record as stating he does not expect a crash in 1999. His research does not tell us in which years we can expect a crash. It simply states if there is to be one, the above dates are the ones to be watchful for. We will comment further on these dates as we see fit over the next few months..."
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