Don't think Softie has much to fear yet.
Although, Sun will no doubt take some market share from MSFT, the magnitude of this loss I believe will be relatively small in the short term (2-3 years). With their huge penetration in most markets/businesses for productivity software, the costs (time and $) to switch operating systems and retrain general workers would discourage most businesses from immediately changing. Sure the cost of StarOffice will be nearly zero, but to upgrade computer systems to Linux and then train people to use it will require some time. In this every changing world, time is a precious commodity that businesses do not want to waste upgrading. However, newer skilled workers will undoubtedly test these cheaper alternatives like Linux/StarOffice and as such, will slowly erode into MSFT market share. In the meantime, it appears MSFT is aware of this change in environment and have their hands in just about everything, given the cash cow they have developed. Whether its wireless with Q or cable with AT&T, to bandwidth with GBLX, the number of businesses that Gates has entangled MSFT with will delay any possible demise.
Is there anything wrong with being 100% MSFT? I have a hard case arguing against this philosophy, except that 30-40% annual returns are not enough. Pretty greedy, eh? However, until I RTFM, I could never achieve this return with a trading mentality. So holding Q, selling Q puts, and buying Q calls, unloading the dead chimps that I've accumulated over the years.
Later |
