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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: PJ Strifas who wrote (28230)9/24/1999 1:55:00 AM
From: Scott C. Lemon  Read Replies (1) of 42771
 
Hello PJ,

> Would this mean that Novell could become the software component or
> equivalent to CSCO in terms of the internet plumbing space? If CSCO
> has the hardware and NOVL the software, the combination seems very
> very powerful in regards to moving information closer to the
> end-user. Even managing how the information is routed along can be
> a huge bonus right now!

I believe that the real impacts of proxy/caching have not even begun to be recognized in the Internet space. And I believe that this is proven by the fact that very few people and/or companies recognize this for what it is ... the migration of packet routing concepts to content and object routing.

This software forms a foundation for the next big infrastructure revolution to come along ... and yes, it would be great if Novell could partner with Cisco in this!

> I mean when you take into account the hardware that CSCO produces
> and marry that to networked appliances running NetWare or
> NDS-enabled applications (such as ICS or a Directory Server), there
> appears to be a nice fit between the technologies.

Well ... BorderManager/ICS is optimized for the commodity Intel platform ... so there would have to be some looking to see how ICS could be integrated onto the Cisco proprietary hardware. But there is a lot of knowledge that could be leveraged.

Also, the two levels of routing - packet and object - are not competing head to head, but in many ways are complimentary. So this even further would benefit a relationship ...

> If a cluster of routers & appliances can form a convergence zone
> and services can be added to these highly sophisticated machines
> all managed by NDS via policies....object routing merged with
> highly-specialized content delivery systems could change the way we
> "surf the 'net" or even watch TV.

What's facinating to me is how the information flowing through the net can be better utilized, and the fact that these types of solutions will be implemented so that we'll even *be able* to watch TV on the net ...

> All we would need is to be free of the PC (or Mac) in our ability
> to access this information route (wireless, handhelds, Interactive
> TV etc) and the world takes on a new face.

I'm not sure that I understand this ...

> If so, would a buyout of NOVL by CSCO become something more then
> just an exercise in "what if". At this point, I'd be more excited
> over a licensing deal or partnership.

I keep trying to think about who the potential partners would be ... or who an aquirer would be ...

The names that I've been thinking of are: Lucent (my long time favorite), AOL, or Cisco. If Cisco feels the threat of Lucent coming then maybe they would be first. The biggest issue is that Novell has some diverse technologies and expertise ... some fit ... others don't.

> :) Just some speculation here....I've said before that the real
> champion of NDS will be Lucent - just a hunch - I couldn't make a
> case for it except what I've stated here regarding CSCO holds true
> for Lucent as well and when you're always a second or even third
> place to CSCO, a deal like this could make you skip a place or two.

As a shareholder of all three (but not AOL ... shucks) I'm happy most anyway ... ;-)

> It's unfortunate that CSCO has climbed into bed with Active
> Directory and wasted the past 3 years. IMHO, NDS could have given
> them more in that time frame and still more in the years to come.

Ah, but the Microsoft pressure worked and got Cisco to sign the exclusive. Remember that Microsoft announced "Steelhead" which was their router software for NT. They said they were going to eliminate the need for all the small business and low-end routers that Cisco built. This would have been a huge revenue hit on Cisco. Cisco signed the Active Directory contract and what do you know ... Steelhead never saw the light of day! ;-)

> Perhaps it will take announcements like this and the advancement of
> networked appliances by other hardware makers (Nortel, Lucent et
> al) into this space that will prod CSCO into looking seriously into
> a deal with Novell. Or perhaps they will just work harder into
> making Active Directory as good as NDS..... :)

Who knows ... Cisco got big and now the internal political situation must be interesting ... ;-)

Scott C. Lemon
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