I don't recall Ballmer being given credit for any particular wit or insight into market valuations. Why should anyone care what he thinks about the market? Its not even in his job description, and I would be that he doesn't pay that much attention to the stock market.
It is all up for discussion. I'm sure he chose he words wisely considering the group he was speaking to yesterday. His motivations are a little less clear to me, but in the scheme of things not that crucial.
However, it is more important to look at the reaction the market gave the comments. The TA 'look at the divergence between the broader market and averages' pundits are shouting, Mr. Dow Theory Rich Russell is warning, the bears are spreading FUD, Y2K, earthquakes, the Yen <--> $$ debate, everyone is talking about key 'support' levels, the self-fulfilling September/October correction club is cheering, 'what is the FED going to do on October 5?' gang is repeating that question over and over, the tea leaf readers are busy reading - and one certainly gets the point that plenty of people are 'wanting' the market to go down and just need an excuse to create days like Tuesday and Thursday of this week (with more to follow no doubt). Now we wait for the 'bottom' to present itself and all of the mathematicians and statistical gurus to be satisfied that numbers do really mean something. Then, everyone will explain and justify why the market 'needed' to do what it did, why the yen/dollar issue is within the norm of a trading range, why the FED did or didn't do what it had to do, why the broader market of stocks has been in a bear market for 73 months, why the market oversold with such great third quarter earnings, why 2000 looks strong for the S&P, why Ballmer said what he said and fit it all into nifty little charts, graphs, sound bites and table pounding on various stocks. They won't tell us how much money they made on the way up or the way down. They will, in the process, do everything they can do to keep money flowing to and fro.
What's the small investor to do? What's the gorilla gamer to do? I think we all know. I'm not being overly optimistic. I'm just reminding myself to stay focused on my goals and the long term. Corrections are fast and furious these days. Most of the Gorillas and Kings took swift 10 percent or more drops of late. I'm sure none of us would like to repeat last fall's dip, but thinking out into the future about companies like MSFT, INTC, CSCO, QCOM, DELL, EMC, LU, ORCL, RMBS and others includes 10 - 30 percent dips just as they have all had in the past. That's the market's game and we must participate in 'their' game while we play our own game. What's it been, four times this year that the Nasdaq was at or near its high? Any reason to believe that we will never see those highs again? Some like to sell at the highs and buy at the lows if they can time it so astutely. Remember, the entire point of the Gorilla Game is not to play that strategy. Tossing and turning at night is no fun, hence the GG tactics.
The gorilla game is the ultimate expression of it's not over until the fat lady sings school of opera. In my opinion - she's not even in the theater yet.
BB |
