I'm just not a conspiracy theory buyer. Voltaire might be a good market timer but that doesn't mean that his theories/arguments make sense. This isn't just a game of big houses/guys vs little guys, insiders vs outsiders. Everybody's playing against everybody else. The big guys running those buy/sell programs are trading against eachother too. Sure when you buy a stock your broker, the intermediary, is effectively trading against you, but so what? I just don't buy this unwritten rule stuff, the idea that all these various groups are somehow acting in conscious concert, that the houses look at some piece of info and know what to do with it so that they're all going in the right direction, the same direction. Don't forget also that the big guys often blow it in spectacular fashion.
Additionally, it's my take that at this moment in time, the little guy has MANY advantages. Info flow has improved dramatically. You've been investing for much longer than most of us on these boards. You'd know better than I how much things have changed in this regard but I'd wager it would have been almost impossible for people on the outside to figure out what was going on with Q over the last few years in the "old days".
Little guys also have much more flexibility. I can sell/hedge my entire portfolio at the open this morning if I want to without worrying about moving the market. I can then change my mind again on Monday. Sure there are tax consequences but getting in and out is no prob. BIG guys can't do this type of thing. In fact this flexibility on the part of the little guy, the internet, is at least partially responsible for the volatiltiy.
The mkt is not weak because of the "houses". Are the houses behind the weak advance/ decline line that's gone on for more than a year? Are the houses behind theoil price hikes, interest rate rises, the weakened dollar, the strong Jap yen, etc? It's a bit much to swallow, the idea that this whole system is rigged and all you have to do is figure out "what's goin on".
Dave |
