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Biotech / Medical : Noven Pharmaceuticals (NOVN)

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To: zizzerzazzer who wrote (51)	9/24/1999 11:45:00 AM
From: zizzerzazzer	Read Replies (1) of 66

Fahnestock Comments - 9/24/99 Current prescription trends show steadily higer usage of Combipatch with total prescriptions (new and refill) during the month of August increasing to 49,600 from 44,100 while new scripts increased to 18,400 from 16,600. (I'm assuming increases are vs July). This is the strongest improvement in new scripts since March. In another development this week, Cygnus has announced that its collaborative partner, American Home Products, has dropped its involvement in E2III (estradiol patch), which recently received FDA approval, and an estradiol/progestin combination patch that is in Phase III clinicals. Cygnus is in a tough position to find an effective marketing partner for both products which are latecomers to the market. AHP's pull out lessens competition for Noven, although we are skeptical about its motives given the conflict of interests with Premarin and PremPro. Even reassigned to another partner, the Cygnus offerings do not appear competitive with Vivelle-dot and CombiPatch. Cygnus' 7-day estradiol patch is 2.7 times the size of Viville-dot. Fahnestock's 2-year price target is $21

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