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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (28979)	9/24/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 50167

I understand the difference between feelings and trading but I also know the difference between fundamentals and trading. My post to you was in reference to your statement that the exuberance had been erased out of this market. MU is not worth it's current price in fundamental value but it is there because the traders are bidding it up in irrational exuberance that MU might actually make money someday. The current price would take hundreds of thousands of years of profit to be fair value. I am still not short it yet but was planning on putting the first third on when it reached my yellow dotted line that was less than two points from the high so I just missed this down leg with a third of a position. I will today point to a different example of exuberance. AOL was up over 6 points today only one day after the mindspring merger that everyone expects to push AOL hard and threatens to knock them off their already eroding pedastle. When nuts still go up inthe face of bad news, a dropping market etc, there is plenty of irrational exuberance to go around. We haven't even come close to the amount of fear needed to get rid of the J6P market only goes up enthusiasm yet. Still waiting for that little bounce to go short some more. <ggg> My target today was going to be FON before the MCI merger news came out, so got out of that by the skin of my teeth <g> Note the bond is up and the TYX is down and it ain't due to good news in the bond market. It is called money fleeing the stock market looking for a safe haven. No one in their right mind would be buying stocks here for buy and hold. This is scalpers and day traders only territory here. PS - I guarantee you I will be short MU by April of next year and I will make at least 300% minimum. DRAM will not stay up more than the next 3-4 months, give it a little extra for the time delay of X-mas lies season and the drop should start early next year to summer. <ng> Good Luck, Lee

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