Robert, RE: Niles, INTC, and moles
Niles never tells us who his sources are; he doesn't even drop hints. That is rare among analysts, and it perpetuates the thought among the institutional community that he does indeed have a 'mole' at Intel. I think that Niles likes the fact that people have this impression of him, that he has inside information on Intel. This also gives Niles some action that he wouldn't ordinarily get, so it helps his pocket book out.
My guess is that he doesn't have any inside sources at Intel. He most probably has some superior outside information, and this can be paired with the fact that he has been very lucky recently. I don't really think that Niles would risk blatantly breaking the law just to get a few numbers. It would be too easy to get caught, and whatever fame he could generate would be fleeting at best.
I compare this with the previous analyst thought to have an inside source at Intel, Rob Chaplinsky. In his case, I really do think that he had an inside source at Intel. He fit the profile. He was a former Intel employee, and had zero reputation as an analyst. In addition, Chaplinsky lasted a short while at H&Q as an analyst, supporting my theory. His inside source goes away, and he really can't add value as an analyst any more, and he disappears into the Sand Hill Rd. venture cap world. |
