Bill, excellent rap tonight!
<<So earlier in the year, when oil was down, the government wanted to buy oil and now they want to sell it. Why don't they just leave well enough alone, is what I'd like to know, and quit monkeying with the markets? >>
<<Bubblevision banter... And as long as I'm letting everyone else write the Rap this morning, I'd like to quote Bill Meehan from his morning notes that he sends out from Cantor-Fitzgerald. "I even heard a TV reporter yesterday morning constantly state that he could think of no reason for the market to reach the ambitious targets recently touted on air, but 10 reasons why the market should go down; so naturally the market will progress to new highs. So much for objectivity. It never once occurred to him or to the gentleman he was speaking with, and probably most viewers, that with more than 60 percent of all NYSE stocks already under water for the year, so many negatives might actually well be not so very positive." >>
I think a good point to make is that contrary opinion or being a contrarian doesn't mean the facts that exist, don't exist. What you're attempting to do is capture people overreacting to that set of facts. At the moment, no one is overreacting to a negative set of facts; they are all saying, gee, well everyone knows about these negative facts, therefore they don't matter, therefore we don't have to react. When people panic about negative events, then the contrarians will take the other side of that panic. So there is so much banter on bubblevision that sometimes I think it's easy to lose sight of what things you can fade and what things you can't fade. The facts are the facts, and all you can do is try to take the other side of people's overreaction to those, both on the upside and the downside. |
