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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)

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To: Glenn McDougall who wrote (1065)	9/25/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) of 24042

The problem with the criticism (ironic, parodic, or otherwise) of Balmer is that it ignores the fact that tech stocks were poised for a tumble. In a genuinely strong market--one with real legs--a comment by Balmer would have never been noticed. The breadth numbers have been very bad for months--the 'average stock' has been in a bear market! Now, it looks like the leadership provided by the tech stocks has crumbled. Maybe, maybe not. We have busted below previous support levels and are left wondering whether or not we are still in bull trend. The market will turn around at least in the short term, that is certain. But, will it approach the area of the previous highs? Or will the rally fizzle out several percentage points below? These are key questions. The latter event--fizzled rally--would likely augur a serious and long-term (try six or many more months) break to much lower numbers. Look at the charts for previous market tops and you'll see what I mean regarding fizzled rallies. Look at the chart for 1976. Ciao, David Todtman

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