This disaster is absolutely disasterous!
Right now the pundits are painting all semi's and pc companies with the same negative, doom and gloom paint brush. The reality is that different companies will be impacted in very different ways by the earthquake in taiwan. Guys like dan niles and kumar are a joke. Don't forget that both these guys said to sell intc a few months back when intc was in mid 50s. Both have been surprisingly quiet since about may/june. A friend of mine sold his intc based on the downgrade and gloomy outlook from kumar a few months ago only to watch his newly sold intc stock rise from 55 to 87. So, i'm not about to buy into this "all pc stocks are going to get killed" mentality. Yes, there indeed will be negative consequences but we'll simply have to wait and see who is impacted and by how much. From what little i see so far it appears that cpq will be impacted less than say dell. Why? (1) geography of cpq suppliers versus dell suppliers, (2) higher inventory at cpq, (3) cpq's varied talents and resources and hence better ability to improvise and problem solve for shortages, (4) bigger clout with supplies vis-a-vis a dell, gtw or muei. After all isn't a supplier going to want to satisfy its largest customer before say its third largest customer? Indeed, there is a real possibility that cpq will be able to actually pick up market share due to disproportionate shortages at competitors such as dell, gtw, etc.
Time will tell. Good luck folks we desperately need it. Smarts, research and due diligence simply do not work with this stock. |
