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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: marcher who wrote (27203)	9/25/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Marc, actually nem is outperforming it's XAU cousins and has taken out it's August high, i agree with Mike Hurley and have posted here about GS purchase of gold. This is a power base:http://www.bway.net/~ramko/Goldw.gif and right at the indecision point we've seen gold make a meteoric turning point. Along with my CRB base chart, I think we have seen a major trend change here. I am a holder of NEM until it get's really overbought, it's too hard to trade the ripples here, you may miss out on a upcrash wave. The job of a market technician is to spot trend changes and then go with the new established trend. The SPX since the July top has made successive bounces off the 200 dma, which has been strong support during this whole bull market from 94 with the exception of last year's little two month bear market. Each bounce has been met with a weaker rally, the final bounce was made on a very bullish candle stick pattern known as a morning star, but that was negated the next day. I don't care how oversold breadth or rsi is, when this mother of all bull market ends, the unwinding will take place in a deeply oversold condition and all the dipsters who did not recognize the trend change will be looking for a bottom. The selling climax of this 6 month trading range imho will have to match the buying climax volume of April (probably exceed it) and will be accompanied by some record oex put volume, hardly anybody is nervous here: decisionpoint.com bb

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