Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 227.90

+0.4%

Dec 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: Spytrdr who wrote (78524)	9/25/1999 6:31:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Spy -- I don't know of anything in the history of the market that is like what is going on today -- perhaps Japan in 1989, except our US valuations are more extreme than they were in Japan. Please note, the Japanese market is still down 50% from its highs ten years later. Please note also that in Japan in 1989 the sentiment was so bullish that people said valuations did not matter -- the stock market would always go up. It did not matter if they dipped because this was just another buying opportunity. Individual investors swore they would never sell. As the market crumbled month after month over a period of a couple of years, they almost ALL sold. The ones that sold earliest did ok. The ones that waited had their finances crushed. What they did not have in stocks they had in real estate. It too dropped 80% on average -- devastating. In 1989 the Japanese would never have believed that land prices could ever go down and stay down -- impossible. But they did. In the US, the second quarter produced a current account deficit of 80 billion dollars. We are so dependent on the decisions of foreign investors that it is hard to describe. Yet people like William don't even see it as a factor. We need to get an investment inflow of that amount just to stay even ($80B in one quarter). It is not forthcoming -- hence the pressure in our inflation rates, the dollar, our bond market and our stock market reflect the uncertainty this poses. The poorly informed believe that stocks justify their own price levels, especially if the economy is 'strong' -- not so. Ballmer is correct -- current prices are absurd. In 2004, AMZN, if it survives at all, is likely to be trading lower than where it is today. We have gone from the sweet spot to the sour spot -- good luck.

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