To all-Just some comments on Monday's earnings.
July 1998 cmgi made +$32 cents /share and from July,1998 to March,1999 had a great run. In April,1999 cmgi missed consensus by 50% to the downside, and from then to present time has been sideways to down.
Now the rule of thumb is that net earnings don't matter to net stocks,I say hogwash, they matter, just look how our stock price varies based on our earnings record.
In 1994 we made 2 cents/share,in '95 we made 5 cents,in '96 we made 20 cents/share,in '97 we lost 44 cents/share ,in '98 we made 14cents/share and so far in 3 quarters of 1999 we have lost 30 cents/share.
Concrete earnings mean that we have ample cash to pursue other investments and R&D.
As for earnings to be of no value because they are a one time event, look at it this way, what if we were developing 48 different sports cars ( as in our 48+ companies within cmgi),and as we got one up to a fine state of development we sold it for a profit of 25,000 % of original investment (as in the case of Geocities), it would have a great affect on our cash flow and our ability to buy other sports cars of new designs that would help make us a leader in the field.
This event is not to be scoffed at.
Now once again what are the various estimates for our fourth quarter, going into Monday at the close of the market.
Zacks and whisper 9/24/99 -$.31/share
first call 9/20/99 -$.17/share
first call 9/24/99 +$2.47/share
Terri Keenan CNN Money week 9/24/99 +$2.47/share
Nelson's broker consensus 9/22/99 +$3.27/share
DJ Albany 9/20/99 +$4.03/share with upgrade to buy and 12 m. target to $200
first call 9/24/99 +$4.08/share (range +$4.03 to +$4.15)
Zen 9/15/99 +$4.50/share w/o engage earnings
Zen 8/23/99 $6.37/share
Zen 9/24/99 $7.10/share with engage earnings
Lots of variation, but in any case there should be plenty of cash in the coffers to invest in other neat deals.
IMVHO,I'd look for a run to above $140 over the next 6 months.
Good Hunting
DAVE DICKERSON |
