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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 241.15

-4.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Bharat H. Barai who wrote (48682)	9/26/1999 2:47:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) of 53903

>>Demand for DRAM is continuing to go up as more and more PCs are used and more and more memory is needed.<< kip w/b proud of you. the above statement was also true during a time period of 5 qtly losses out of 6 qtrs. sounds good, but means little, if anything at all. >>With windows 2000, the regular PCs may need 128 MB as optimal and 256 MG as desirable.<< unit pc growth is approaching 0% as pc prices decline at a 15%-20%+ clip every year. windows 200 is going to come out and folks will buy more pcs at a 15-20% higher cost? those that understand basic economic principles says this just isn't likely. i am quite comfortable that those who oppose my view must suspend the laws of basic economics to make their point, though. >>No new fabs have come on line. The only capacity addition is thru modernization to 0.20 and 0.18 process. The total demand is far outstripping the extra yield from fab modernization.<< the jury is still out. just 2-3 months ago, dram was at $4 and micron had well over 8 weeks of inventory stocked to the rafters. in their infinite managerial wisdom, they sold all 8 weeks worth of inventory at $3-4 - the absolute bottom! (build fabs at the absolute top and sell inventory at absolute bottoms - these folks deserve a bonus! ;-) add in an earthquake and the possibility of a sneaky inventory hold back and this situation could be caused by mere luck and manipulation. demand far outstripping supply? waaaaay too soon to reach that conclusion. i expect cpq to start shipping 32 mb in their cheap pcs again (as soon as the $3-4 dram runs out - thanks mu! ;-) several years ago, the koreans held back inventory (and nobody knew it except a few folks - mostly on this thread) and mu earned over $0.40. woe to mu when that torrent of dram was unleashed on the market, though. spot was well over cost for a lot of last q and mu will still lose money, in all probability. why? is spot a small fraction of their business? is it smaller so they can manipulate the price up? contracts are moving up now. this should help mu, if they aren't holding back inventory since last q ended. it will be interesting to see if they say how much inventory they have NOW - as opposed to q end. this is a nice move up for mu. does it have legs? too soon to tell.

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