Hi Arik! I think we need a 1997 reunion here with Mohan, Bilow, Bobby Beara, Thomas, and of course, yours truely. I think we can all get along this time- even though I was right back then. :)
I still don't see a Crash coming. The way I see it we are immersed here in a very classic slow grinding Bear Market. Ultimately, all support levels will be broken because that is the nature of a Bear market. I think the Dow can fall to at least 7000 by the time the current Bear is over. To be sure, the fundamental risk to this market lies several thousand points below 7,000. But this market gave up on fundamentals a long time ago, at Dow 5,000.
If we are now in a primary Bear Market, then the Dow, S@P and Nasdaq should close below its October 98 lows. Any rally from that point will then be counter trend.
I still see to much liquidity for a Crash to occur. The Polyannas are continuing to throw their whole life savings ( and more ) into this market- enough to prevent a crash.
Don't underestimate the Polyannas! They are a tough force to reckon with and they will not give up easily without a great fight.
I see a decline to Dow 7000. Then a countertrend rally back to Dow 9000-9500 in the second half of the year 2000 before the kind of Bear Market your speaking of takes hold. |
