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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (8880)9/26/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper  Read Replies (1) of 15132
 
"As to the economy we may have future issues developing but at the moment no sign of imminent recession."

No recession in sight, for now. However, there is a tight relationship between monetary policy and the stock market and the business cycle. Restrictive monetary policy typically leads a business cycle downturn by a year or more. The stock market typically leads the business cycle by six or eight months.

If Greenspan continues to restrict monetary policy the question is: Is the current monetary approach restrictive enough to create a business cycle downturn? As marc alluded, if we return to the area of the old highs with restrictive monetary policy there may be no more juice to fuel business for expanded future earnings and no more juice to sweeten the teeth of the stock sharks. Poof goes the Bull.

We will see.

Ciao,
David Todtman

Ciao,
David Todtman
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