Eric,
Sorry, Im brain dead at times. ggggggggg
In the past, I was watching the crossovers of the 3,5,8,13,21 DMA's, untilmy computer went down and I lost all the data. That was alot of work. That work did tell me what the mid-term trend was but was not a good in timing the market.
One of first significant times I was able to use the NEW HIGHs/LOWs as a timing device was last DECEMBER. At that time I noticed that if the NEW LOWS was above 50 and the NEW HIGHs below 50 for over 30 days then the chances were high for a minimum 5% pullback. I had gone thru 30 years of data to notice that pattern. Now heres my problem, since I lost more data, I cant remember if those were the exact numbers(50) so if anyone can remember, I would appreciate it. So in that case it was noticing a statistically viable pattern.
This time, it was easier. It was the fast rate of change in the NEW LOWs. I have also statistically noticed that when the NEW LOWs get above 200 it means danger, but that by itself is still not a good timer. It was how quick it got over 200 that iced it for me.
So basicly, it is statistical pattern recognition. Its alot of work and my eyes get slanted when I do that type of research. I normally go thru 30 years of data, before I make a statistical viable comment.
Hope that was of help. |
