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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (8111)9/27/1999 9:19:00 AM
From: snapper  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Thanks Ian. I have read this thread for long time and it is one of the best on SI in my opinion. By that I mean it usually comes closer to what is really happening than most others.

Yes my background is(was) with MU.

I agree there is much speculation going on when nobody who is allowed to post, has actually toured the fabs to have any concrete basis. I posted on another thread that I have a friend who was in Taiwan recently and based on what he 'heard' he guessed it would be more like a month to get production back on line. HOWEVER, I got this second hand from another person who actually spoke to him and I am not sure which facilities and companies he was referring to.

On the question can TSMC make up a couple weeks production, my thoughts are:
TSMC is in the foundry business. Foundries generally run at lower utilization than DRAM fabs so that they can provide short cycle times. I would think there is a good chance a foundry operation could make up at least a portion of the lost production by loading their lines more heavily. I am not from the foundry side of the business so take this with a grain of salt. Peak production goes very late in the year because most of the large computer OEMs now run with very short cycle times to minimize inventory costs. Hope this helps.
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