Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO?

AWRE 2.160

+1.9%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Tim McCormick who wrote (6960)	9/27/1999 9:38:00 AM
From: Bobo	Read Replies (2) of 9236

Tim, I guess we share the same notes regarding AWRE. I think there are several market misperceptions as to AWRE's technology. 1) As I mentioned in a previous post, major CLEC's such as Covad and Northpoint have deployed little-to-no DMT ADSL. If you go to either one of their websites, you will find no DMT premise equipment -- only SDSL and CAP-based ADSL. I assume that Rythyms is using CAP or DSL since they are using Paradyne equipment. 2) With respect to major NA ILEC action, there were 150k DSL lines deployed at the end of 2Q99. Of these, over 70k appear to be US West CAP-based DSL. The balance are likely Alcatel-based DMT lines. 3) Aware needs an extradinory number of DSL lines and market share to legitimize their business. I won't go into details regarding the calculations but even the most rosy DSL forecasts for 2003 seems to stretch the current valuation of Aware. One other followup question to your response... Are you implying that 1) the floor on Aware's CO royalty is 5% and 2) that Aware only gets $.50/ modem for Lucent-like deals? Thanks, Bobo

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