Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (51925)	9/27/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

GaryB; re: MDR... After reading Mavis's FGI article in TSC - I rescubscribed... They had a great article on Julian Robertsons Tiger Funds; whereby a popular "technique" and a very profitable one; is where by hedge fund traders zero in on "known" weak positions of Mutual Funds, Other Hedge Funds, or Major Traders; especially when they are having other troubles... The Article talked about how some Tiger fund individual stock holdings were targeted - artificically pressured to where sell stops are triggered when a "trader", or fund has a large position - ie: Druckenmillers over 10% position in MDR. The flipside for the smaller idividual investor; is to know of, and then to monitor this activity and to buy into this artifically "forced" selling... The MDR Indonesian contract cancellation possibilities have changed dramatically for the better of late. MDR is near a 5 year low - look at the chart and see what has happened to MDR - EVERY SINGLE TIME; that it has touched the $19-$20 range... Every time -over the lat 2 years; it has turned and run straight to $30; and over 10 years - this has been a super buy on prior lows. quote.yahoo.com Tell me if this isn't a company to buy on dips : the real story is via their recent acquisitions - their upside earnings capacity is greatly increased. If this indeed becomes the mother of all Oilpatch booms - few companies have this upside; with this cash & balance sheet. quote.yahoo.com Imho; this is where the "momenteum" focus of EW's may lose sight for some specific event oriented factors... all in all; I would be at least 50% in here - and personally I will be a huge, huge call option buyer at $17.50 fwiw. The growing backlog - which is virtually unheard of in the oilpatch here, the huge cash position - enough to pay cash for FGI AND HLX here... and all of the fundamental's of this company and given their core nice markets; - this is a top 3-5 MUST OWN Service/Driller Stock here imho... Sometimes the technicals are right - sometimes you have to believe the numbers and beat the crowd to the party... $19 7/8ths - here and then averaging down , or buying calls at $17 1/2 is a no brainer imho. The numbers are simply more compelling than ANY other company in the patch imho. Only GLBL has equally attractive upside niche growth imho. See Merrill's excellent analyst report on MDR. $4.00 earnings capacity; this in a near perfect enviornment - ie: a 3 year oilpatch boom - is a potential $4.00 x 20 PE = $80 stock at the peak/end of the expansion cycle... If this had "leaps" - I wouldn't be following the day to day any longer (VBG)... In here and I am pulling for the EW's for $17 MDR; as I am holding a good deal of cash for margin and some call option buys here... The overall market only needs to settle - that is all I am concerned with - not the fundamentals on my watch list stocks... PS- 95K sell on MDR @ $19 7/8ths ... I'm watching with an open mind... $17.50 will give me a full position at an avg. of $18 1/2ish with call option leverage at that price point as well...

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