Pomp, sorry to see the "dissolution", I have been out yesterday and all day today, and came to see, yes, another 200 posts, I could not read all of them, but looking at the price, I can only say that the turnips thought this will take at least until October 5th. On the other hand, I have not yet seen the "second shoe" dropping (actual, if temporary defections, not just delays), and a flurry of down grades (unless I missed a down grade from MSDW?). Thus, until I get my bearings, and in view of the failure of $61 to hold, the turnips are declaring that they simply do not know how low this one could go. Right now, particularly if the market resumes its general decline, it is quite possible that all premiums (that is how disappointment is punished on the street) will be taken out, and between here and the end of the year we could see the stock go down to a 20 PE or so of next year's projected earnings. Since under some of the worst scenarios, I cannot see less than $.80 in 2000, and more probably something like $1.00, I can now see this favorite of mine selling down to half its current value, all the way into the mid 20'. It is not a likely scenario, but not impossible either. If anyone is tight on margins because of RMBS, he surely should have heeded to the warning signals that were in the air last week, and IMHO, it is not too late to get whatever you can. It seems that the selling avalanche is not meeting much demand. This stock may become a tax loss selling favorite.
Zeev |
