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Non-Tech : Auric Goldfinger's Short List

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To: ynot who wrote (3178)9/28/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger  Read Replies (2) of 19428
 
LUMM please PM. All who shorted USIX, raise your hand. Next is CIEN and seven reasons to sell/sell short:

"1. The National Fiber Optic Conference (NFOEC) which runs through this Thursday has yielded many new product
announcements from CIEN's competitors (LU,NT and ALA) but nothing significant in our opinion from CIEN as of yet.
CIEN did announce a small metro product contract (less than $5 million in revenue) from a European telecom customer.

2. The products announced by CIEN's competitors are newer, better, and faster technology than CIEN's. (a very well researched street view, albiet contrarian)

3. A potential MCI/Sprint merger would be a negative for CIEN since a combined company would likely cause a pause in any new product purchases.


4. Sprint has already advised CIEN that it would not be its sole supplier starting 1/1/00.

5. Corning (GLW) has begun to roll-out new light switching technology which will directly compete against CIEN's Lightera division. GLW will be selling these products directly to LU, NT, and ALA not to the carriers as CIEN
does.

6. Nortel (NT) will be making a major announcement "which will forever change the internet" at 10:00 AM EDT today. This announcement may also be a competitive issue for CIEN.

7. CIEN has broken through its 50 day moving average as of last night's close.

CIEN carries a $5 billion market cap, has revenues of approximately $450 mm, and little if any earnings in the current fiscal year. Sell/SellShort CIEN with a $20 near term and $12 long term target."

Let 'em rip boyz.
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