To all: We are setting up for a nice rally period from October-January. The markets (dumb trader guys) need a clear signal to buy, and I think the Fed meeting will be that op (or sometime shortly thereafter).......Although I know it is frustrating (now) watching Dell flounder...look at the following facts/thoughts:
(1) mid-October- January period is historically a great time for stocks, and especially tech stocks
(2) Unit sales for PCs, from all sources, appears to be outstanding for the next couple quarters
(3) A lot of money is sitting on the sidelines..
(4) Since the market is remaining down here, and if it does not rally significantly going into the Fed meeting, the market(s) are giving the Fed an additional reason not to raise rates....our short-term pain here will be well-worth it come October 5th..the Fed will not raise rates..thus helping the markets...
(5) The Fed will have a difficult time raising rates in Nov./Dec. too, due to Y2K...Bond will likely anticipate this, and bond will fall below key 5.82....of course, we all know what this will do for high PE stocks
(6) Some (a lot?) Safety capital will find its way into the 30 year treasury...Between this, and slower U.S. economy (remember, 2 interest rate hikes will be kicking in with housing, other areas)...Rates will continue to go down
(7) Lots of investor conferences in October-December period..lots of opportunity for Dell to get out the "good news"
(8) Most of bad news (concerning Taiwan) priced into Dell, other PC stocks...
(9) Windows 2000, Xeon coming..
(10) Dell now (more) competitive in mid-range, even some low-end consumer PC sales....Brand advertising campaign really adding to sales..
(11) Sometime in 4Q, we could get an announcement concerning Dell taking over (some) of IBM PC's operations
January should be a monster month (on this fact alone):
IF Y2K plays havoc with the rest of the world.....safety money will find its way to the U.S. like there is no tomorrow.....IF Y2K is no big deal, safety money locked up in bonds or on the sidelines will be put back to work...EITHER WAY, U.S. markets should benefit...Of course, January is a historically great month for the markets..
So, hang in there all...it will get better.. |
