Some people just don't get it...
I, too, have been silently reading this forum for the past couple of months, and while some of the posters are informed, others are just hype-monsters who will mindlessly attack anyone who offers a differing opinion (usually a negative one).
As far as I know, the name of this thread is "Share price too high?", and it was started on Oct. 14, 1995, when IOMG was a split-adjusted 3 3/8 (I just checked). In words, that's three and three-eighths! Obviously the IOMG story is much clearer today, and just as obviously, at least some of the good news has been factored into the stock price, which has risen twelve-fold since then. So I think that on THIS thread, it's still fair game for someone to say "Yes, the share price IS too high", and for others to disagree.
Ida's mail was, for the most part, a lucid discussion about why she felt the share price IS too high. Mary Cluney's rebuttal defending the share price was also a fact-based, logical response. A lot of the other messages have just been vicious personal attacks. Is this really necessary?
In Ida's defense, I believe that a strong argument can be made that the Zip and Jaz drives and disks, while in explosive growth phases right now that can last for a couple of years, will essentially become commodity products down the road. And if one takes the point of view that IOMG's products will eventually become mass-produced commodities, then why not compare IOMG to a Seagate, Texas Instruments, Dell Computer, Compaq, or a Micron? Granted, all of these companies are very different in several ways, but all of them produce products that are viewed by many to be commodities. And all of them are fairly successful, mature companies.
Also, I believe that one should be aware that someone with very deep pockets and established OEM relationships such as 3M or Western Digital will try to come in with a competitive product.
On the other hand, one can argue that the first to obtain dominance in the removable drive market is going to hold onto their position and relationships, and continue to grow by leaps and bounds for many, many years to come. One can say that IOMG's product is so superior right now to anything that Syquest or anyone else has that to offer that IOMG has built an insurmountable lead. After all, IOMG is obviously and clearly the frontrunner in this industry.
But there are many ways to value a company:
- Price/sales, accounting for sales growth
- Market cap vs. other companies that are perceived as similar
- P/E vs. long term growth rate
- Estimate the market in a few years and take an estimated market share (the Netscape method)
Whichever way you choose doesn't invalidate other ways, or make anyone who uses different methods "stupid" or "ignorant". IOMG may not be Micron Technology, but it definitely isn't Intel either.
If any negative opinion on IOMG is going to be flamed, then set up a newsgroup called: "Iomega - Cheerleaders" or "Iomega - Blind Trust". But when I own a stock, I like to hear the positive opinions AND the negative opinions, and then I use my brain (adequate or inadequate though it may be) to filter through what I read and make my OWN decisions. In the real world, stocks do crash, and if I'm in one, I'd rather I stayed in it after hearing both sides of the story and picking my ground.
For the record, I've never owned Iomega, and I'm not an analyst/broker/trader/journalist or anyone else who has a vested interest in moving this. I've been following IOMG since early last year when it was, split-adjusted, less than $1/share, but after every run-up, I was too nervous to buy in. Lots of you will laugh, and I wish I'd bought, but I've learned a couple of things, and I don't feel too sorry for myself.
Anyway, I've said my piece.
- Al |
