Big Chechnya Attack Unlikely Soon
Russian ground forces are unlikely to invade rebel Chechnya on a large scale
soon but might be tempted to take a slice of territory to set up an Israeli-style
buffer zone, defense experts said on Monday.
Russia's air force has been bombing Chechnya for the past five days,
concentrating on strategic targets in an operation defense analysts say has
been at least in part inspired by Western bombing of Yugoslavia and Iraq.
So far Russia has not gone in on the ground, although thousands of Russian
soldiers are stationed on or near the frontier to establish a cordon sanitaire.
Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev said at the weekend a land incursion was an
option.
But Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the newspaper
Vremya-MN on Monday there would be no major assault along the lines of
the disastrous 1994-96 Chechnya war because Moscow wanted to protect
its own people.
Defense experts said these mixed signals were designed to unnerve or
confuse Chechen officials.
"I still find it difficult to believe they would be so stupid as to repeat 1994 and
invade the whole of Chechnya," said Anatol Lieven of the London-based
International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Kremlin accuses Chechnya of harboring Islamic militants responsible for
a series of apartment block bombings, including in Moscow, in which
hundreds have died. The Chechen authorities deny giving the rebels shelter
and involvement in the blasts.
A Russian defense expert told Reuters there were several points supporting
the theory a major invasion was unlikely.
One is that winter is approaching - no time to be committing ground troops.
Another is the cash-starved Defense Ministry has received no extra funds for
the security operation, including the costly air attacks already under way.
"All these bombing raids suggest impetuousness rather than a sensible plan,"
said the expert.
He said the ground troops in southern Russia might conceivably be shunted
across the border into Chechnya at some stage to establish a deeper security
buffer zone.
Lieven, author of "Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian power", agreed this was
an option.
RIVER EASIER TO SECURE THAN OPEN STEPPE
"I think it is possible they might try to carve off some bit or bits of Chechnya
which they would call an Israeli-style security zone," he said by telephone,
referring to Israel's occupation zone in Lebanon.
"For example, they might take northern Chechnya up to the Terek River
because this is an area from which many Russians think they should never
have retreated in 1996," he said.
"It is an area of traditional Cossack settlement and of course the line of the
river is a much easier security border than the open steppe," he said, although
he noted it would not help the defense of the mountainous Dagestan frontier.
The most recent rebel incursions were in Dagestan, which borders Chechnya,
and where some 250 Russian troops died.
Border guards are also monitoring the frontiers with Georgia and Azerbaijan
to stop militants slipping in by the back door.
Alexander Golts, a leading defense analyst, wrote in the latest edition of the
weekly magazine Itogi that Russia was ill-prepared to mount a land invasion
even if it wanted to.
It has no supply chains set up and would have to rotate barely trained
conscripts through the region, he said.
Lieven also noted that Russia had no specialist mountain troops and few
available airborne units.
The Russian army is in no better shape than it was when the war to try to halt
Chechnya's independence bid started in 1994.
"Even taking the territory north of the Terek would not be as simple or as
bloodless as the present task," he said.
"What I am really afraid of is that after the bombings in Moscow, if they go in
again, the troops frankly will feel justified in killing anybody they meet."
Vremya-MN quoted a security source as saying one military proposal was a
two-stage plan that would start with four or five months of aerial
bombardment coupled with a blockade.
A later phase would involve trying to foment internal divisions among the
militants before ground troops moved in.
Russian defense officials do not openly discuss tactics but politicians have
been more talkative, at least on the motives.
"We will use the benefit of modern means to destroy the terrorists on the
fringes," Putin told Vremya-MN. "We will destroy their infrastructure. Special
forces will be used only for mopping up."
Western and Russian political experts say domestic Russian politics is directly
linked to the Chechnya crisis, although do not necessarily suggest it is being
specifically manipulated.
Putin is President Boris Yeltsin's favored successor but faces an uphill
struggle to be elected next year.
"The country has at last seen a person who said he will get tough and has got
tough," said one Russian political analyst, explaining popular sentiment. "And
most important so far, there are not many graves."
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